Commercial Insight: Cytotoxics

Summary

There is a plethora of cytotoxics on the market but only a few dominate in terms of sales. Yet, patents for major drugs are expected to expire in the short to mid term, and sales will decrease significantly due to generic exposure. The impact of genericization is likely to have greater ramifications than ever given the drive to cut global healthcare costs.

Highlights

• The size of the cytotoxic market in the seven major pharmaceutical markets (US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) is estimated to be approximately $9.6 billion. Datamonitor expects it to reach a peak of $12.8 billion by 2009. However, mainly due to major patent expiries, it is expected to drop to $11.3 billion by 2014.
• The US represents the largest single market for cytotoxics, accounting for more than half of total sales in the seven major markets. Its proportion is expected to decline as patents for major drugs expire during the forecast period. However, the late approval and patent expiries of major drugs in Japan means that its size will increase to 2014.
• Sanofi-Aventis is the leading player with a quarter of total cytotoxic sales, followed by Lilly with a tenth share of the market. Despite lower sales, Lilly's reliance on Gemzar and Alimta will intensify compared with that of Sanofi-Aventis by 2010, indicating that Lilly will be at a higher risk from generic competition when their patents expire.

Scope

• Country-specific opportunities and threats that are likely to impact sales and uptake of the leading cytotoxic drugs
• Key events and factors influencing the sales of major cytotoxic drugs in the seven major markets (US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK)
• Sales forecasts to 2014 for leading cytotoxics in each drug class under the ATC classification
• Case studies examining Sanofi-Aventis's Eloxatin with Pfizer's Camptosar for the treatment of colorectal cancer and its reliance on cytotoxic sales

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand the current and future dynamics of the cytotoxic market to determine its future size and identify new opportunities
• Evaluate the effect patent expiries will have on key agents in order to develop commercial strategies and minimize the impact of genericization
• Assess key success factors that drive the cytotoxic market to estimate the uptake of existing and pipeline cytotoxics in the seven major markets

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