Forecast Insight: Insomnia Orexin and serotonin receptor modulators to innovate market

Summary

Introduction

After 3 years of steady growth, the value of the insomnia market across the seven major markets (7MM) slumped by 12% to $4.1 billion in 2007 due to rapid generic erosion of Sanofi-Aventis's market leader Ambien (zolpidem) in the US. However, this downturn will be short-lived and the market will regain growth from 2009 to $6.9 billion in 2017 driven by the launch of new treatments across the 7MM.

Scope

• This report gives a strategic analysis of the likely impact that recent events will have on the future insomnia market
• Includes insomnia-specific sales forecasts for the key brands and pipeline agents in the seven major markets to 2017
• This report provides a global market snapshot by including insomnia-specific sales analysis for leading brands outside the seven major markets
• Key conclusions are supported by key opinion leader comment

Highlights

During 2007, US sales of Ambien CR overtook sales of Lunesta indicating that Sanofi-Aventis' attempt to switch patients from Ambien to Ambien CR has been successful. Ambien CR is forecast to become the market leader in 2017, achieving sales of over $1.5 billion.

Actelion's orexin receptor antagonistalmorexantis forecast to be the main driver of pipeline sales products, contributing blockbuster revenues by 2017. This is higher than previous forecasts due to Actelion's recent commercialization deal with GlaxoSmithKline, which will enable the realization of almorexant's full commercial potential

Neurim and Lundbeck's Circadin (controlled release melatonin) is the most recent entry to the insomnia market in Germany and it is expected that the drug will be rolled out in remaining EU countries later in 2008. Due to an uncompetitive clinical profile Datamonitor forecasts sales of Circadin to be small compared to other leading brands

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand when late-stage pipeline products will launch and what impact these will have on the market during the forecast period 2007 to 2017
• Quantify the current size of the seven major markets and the trends in the rest of the world
• Assess the impact of events, such as patent expiries and new product launches, on the insomnia-specific sales of key brand name products

Contents

• Chapter 1 Executive Summary
  • Strategic Scoping And Focus
  • Datamonitor Insight Into The Insomnia Market
  • Contributing Experts
  • Related Reports
• Chapter 2 Market Definition And Overview
  • Market Definition For This Report
  • Current Seven Major Market Assessment
  • The Insomnia Market Was Worth Over $4 Billion In 2007
  • Us Remained The Largest Insomnia Market In 2007, Despite Being The Only Market To Experience A Decline In Sales
  • Rest Of The World Snapshot
  • The Insomnia Market In The Rest Of The World Was Worth $814m In 2007
  • Key Brand Comparison Between The Seven Major Markets And Rest Of The World
  • Brazil Offers The Greatest Growth Opportunity In The Emerging Markets
  • Future Seven Major Market Assessment
  • Comparison With Previous Forecast
  • Similar Total Insomnia Market Forecasts, With A Slight Upgrade To Combined Pipeline Drug Revenues
  • Insomnia Market Will Grow To Sales Of $6.8 Billion In 2017
  • Forecast Data Tables
• Chapter 3 Brand Dynamics
  • Insomnia Competitive Landscape
  • Current Brand Dynamics
  • Ambien Remained The Market Leader In 2007, Despite Substantial Generic Erosion
  • Sales Of Ambien Cr Overtake Lunesta In The Us
  • Future Market Forecast By Brand
  • Ambien Cr To Become The Leading Brand In The Insomnia Market
  • Almorexant From Actelion And Glaxosmithkline Is Expected To Achieve The Greatest Sales Of All Late-Stage Pipeline Products
  • Marketed Non-Barbiturate Plain Drugs
  • Ambien (Zolpidem)
• Overview
  • Generic Erosion In The Us Will Cause Ambien''s Revenue To Fall To $161m In 2017
  • Availability Of Generic Zolpidem Poses A Large Barrier To Entry For Pipeline Insomnia Drugs
  • Forecast Data And Assumptions
  • Ambien Cr (Zolpidem Controlled Release)
• Overview
  • Marketing Strategies Include Free Trials Of Ambien Cr And The Publication Of New Data
  • The Timing Of The Genericization Of Ambien Cr Is Uncertain
  • Broader Geographical Reach Will Provide Modest Boost To Ambien Cr''s Sales
  • Forecast Data And Assumptions
  • Rozerem (Ramelteon)
• Overview
  • Rozerem''s Eu Launch Is Uncertain After It Was Refused Marketing Authorization
  • In Japan, Rozerem Will Receive The Greatest Uptake Among Treatment-Nave Patients
  • Forecast Data And Assumptions
  • Lunesta (Eszopiclone)
• Overview
  • Broader Geographical Reach Will Boost Uptake Of Lunesta
  • Forecast Data And Assumptions
  • Circadin
• Overview
  • Clinical Trial Data
  • Circadin''s First-To-Market Status Among The Melatonin Drugs In The Eu Will Facilitate Uptake
  • Circadin Will Receive Greatest Uptake Among Treatment-Naive Patients And Those Using Herbal Remedies
  • Detailing Of Primary Care Physicians Would Benefit The Uptake Of Circadin
  • Forecast Data And Assumptions
  • Imovane (Zopiclone)
• Overview
  • Forecast Data And Assumptions
  • Sonata (Zaleplon)
• Overview
  • Forecast Data And Assumptions
  • Key Late-Stage Pipeline Overview
  • Almorexant (Act-078573)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight And Forecasts
  • Eplivanserin (Sr-46349)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trial Data
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Esmirtazapine (Org-50081)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Volinanserin (M-100907)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Tasimelteon (Vec-162)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Indiplon Ir
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Indiplon Mr
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Sublinox (Zolpidem)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trial Data: Phase Iii Study Demonstrates Sublinox Acts 30% Faster Than Ambien
  • Perceived Lack Of Need For A Drug With A Faster Onset Of Action Than Marketed Drugs Will Hinder Uptake
  • Silenor (Doxepin)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials: Positive Phase Iii Data Presented At The Meeting Of The Associated Professional Sleep Societies
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Intermezzo (Zolpidem)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Zolpimist (Zolpidem)
• Overview
  • Clinical Trials
  • Datamonitor Insight
  • Adipiplon (Ng-2-73)
• Overview
  • Future Of Adipiplon Is Uncertain After Suspension Of Phase Ii Study
  • Unforecasted Insomnia Pipeline Candidates
  • Recently Discontinued Pipeline Drugs
  • Tik-301
• Bibliography
  • Journal Papers
  • Websites
  • Datamonitor Reports
• Appendix A - Market Assumption
  • New Product Launches
  • Patent Expiries
  • Data Definitions, Limitations And Assumptions
  • Standard Units
  • Japanese Market Data
  • Derivation Of Sales Forecasts And Pricing Trends
  • Forecast Methodology
• Appendix B
  • Contributing Experts
  • Report Methodology
  • About Datamonitor Healthcare
  • About The Disease Analysis Team
  • Disclaimer