Commercial Insight: HIV - The battle for market share is getting fiercer

Summary

Introduction

In 2007, HIV drugs achieved sales of $9.3 billion in the 7MM, growing faster than the overall market at a CAGR of 11.3% from 2004-2007. Due to patent expirations, Datamonitor expects the market's growth to slow down somewhat, reaching total sales of $15.1 billion in 2017. Among the ROW, the Canadian HIV market in 2007 was worth $272 million, achieving a CAGR of 24% from 2004-2007.

Scope

• In-depth analysis of the current HIV market across the US, EU, Japan and a ROW snapshot
• Thorough assessment of underlying commercial and clinical factors shaping the antiretroviral market
• Detailed sales forecasts for the major antiretroviral classes, molecules and brands in each of the seven major markets
• Case study analysis of the Canadian market including an in-depth assessment of the healthcare system and potential opportunities and threats

Highlights

Gilead is now the market leader in HIV with a portfolio of just four marketed products. Datamonitor expects JnJ/Tibotec and Merck to be the fastest growing companies over the next 10 years. While Tibotec only entered the field with the launch of its first product in 2006, Merck & Co.'s first-in-class Isentress reenergized its HIV efforts in 2007.

The HIV market is very concentrated, with the top 10 brands accounting for 80% of total antiretroviral sales across the 7MM in 2007. Truvada was the bestselling drug with revenues of $1.5 billion. Gilead and BMS' rapidly growing joint venture Atripla was already the fourth best selling HIV drug despite the absence of ex-US sales during the period.

While the 7MM and Canada are commercially the most significant for HIV, companies are now turning towards fast-growing emerging markets as new sources of revenue growth. The potential is there: the 7MM only account for 36% of the globally infected population, but more than 85% of revenues.

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand the changing market dynamics of HIV drugs, key success factors for leading brands as well as the impact of pending patent expiries
• Understand the patient acquisition process with key inflection points in the decision-making process to choose antiretroviral drug brands
• Obtain full global, country, class and product-specific forecasts of currently marketed and pipeline antiretrovirals from 2007 to 2017

Contents

• Chapter 1 Executive Summary
  • Datamonitor Insight Into The Disease Market
  • Related Reports
• Chapter 2 Market Definition
  • Market Definition For This Report
  • Disease Definition
• Overview Of Antiretroviral Classes
  • Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (Nrtis)
  • Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
  • Protease Inhibitors
  • Entry Inhibitors And Others
• Chapter 3 Patient Acquisition Process
• Introduction
  • Patient Care Path
  • Points Of Influence In The Patient Care Path
  • Increasing Awareness Of Hiv And Encouraging More Voluntary Testing Of Patients
  • Choice Of First-Line Therapy
  • Decisions Following Treatment Failure
  • Factors That Influence Patient Flow Through The Healthcare System
• Chapter 4 Market Overview
  • Seven Major Markets
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Opportunities And Threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • Us
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Opportunities And Threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • Japan
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Opportunities And Threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • 5 Major European Markets (5eu)
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Opportunities And Threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
  • France
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Germany
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Italy
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Spain
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Uk
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Future Market Assessment
  • Rest Of World Snapshot
  • Current Market Assessment
  • Opportunities And Threats
  • Opportunities
  • Threats
• Chapter 5 Brand Dynamics
• Overview Of Competitive Landscape
  • Drivers Of Brand Choice
  • Patient Resistance Profile
  • Quality Of Life Considerations
  • Pill Burden And Dosing Frequency
  • Side Effects
  • Us Formulary Status For Leading Brands
  • Marketing Strategies
  • Promotional Spend
  • Sponsorship And Public Awareness Campaigns
  • Direct To Consumer Advertising
  • Atripla Is The New Gold Standard For Newly Diagnosed Patients
  • Truvada And Sustiva Are Successful First-Line Drugs
  • Drug Profile
  • Product Positioning
  • Brand Forecast To 2017
  • Strategic Recommendations
  • Kaletra''s Position As Leading Pi Is Under Threat
  • Drug Profile
  • Product Positioning
  • Brand Forecast To 2017
  • Strategic Recommendations
  • Reyataz To Replace Kaletra As Leading Pi
  • Castle Results And Eu Approval For Nave Patients To Increase Uptake
  • Drug Profile
  • Product Positioning
  • Brand Forecast To 2017
  • Strategic Recommendations
  • Isentress Is Being Positioned Across All Lines Of Therapy
  • Target Product Profile
  • Development Overview
  • Product Positioning
  • Drug Forecast To 2017
  • Strategic Recommendations
  • Intelence Is Enabling Use Of Nnrtis In Late-Stage Therapy
  • Target Product Profile
  • Development Overview
  • Product Positioning
  • Drug Forecast To 2017
  • Strategic Recommendations
• Chapter 6 Key Developers
  • Strategic Overview
  • Trends In Corporate Strategy
  • Companies Are Pursuing First-Line Indication
  • Gilead
  • Corporate Strategy
  • Hiv Portfolio Assessment
  • Glaxosmithkline
  • Corporate Strategy
  • Hiv Portfolio Assessment
  • Tibotec
  • Corporate Strategy
  • Hiv Portfolio Assessment
  • Porfolio Assessment Of Other Leading Companies
  • Sustiva''s Patent Expiry May Put Bms''s Hiv Franchise At Risk
  • With Norvir''s Patent Expiry In 2014 And A Lackluster Pipeline, Abbott''s Position In The Hiv Market Will Diminish
  • Roche Has Publicly Announced Withdrawal From The Hiv Market
  • Boehringer Ingelheim Is Heavily Reliant On Viramune And Aptivus
  • Merck''s Strong Pipeline Will Make It A Fierce Competitor In The Hiv Market
• Chapter 7 Case Studies
  • Canadian Hiv Market Overview
• Overview Of The Canadian Healthcare System
  • All Jurisdictions Cover The Majority Of Hiv Drug Costs In One Way Or Another, Although The Mechanism For Coverage Varies
  • Market Access For Hiv Drugs Is Ultimately Determined By Provincial Drug Plans
  • Price Constraints Imposed Mainly Through Provincial Listings
  • Opportunities
  • Rising Prevalence Of Hiv Contributes To Growth Of The Market
  • Drug Approval Times Have Declined Significantly
  • Threats
  • Cost Containment Policies Implemented By Individual Plans
  • Proposals For A Common National Formulary To Increase Bargaining Powers With Industry
• Bibliography
  • Journal Papers
  • Websites
  • Others
  • Datamonitor Reports
• Appendix A - Market Assumption
  • New Product Paunches
  • Data Definitions, Limitations And Assumptions
  • Standard Units
  • Japanese Market Data
  • Derivation Of Sales Forecasts And Pricing Trends
  • Forecast Methodology
• Appendix B
  • Contributing Experts
  • Report Methodology
  • About Datamonitor Healthcare
  • About The Infectious Diseases And Respiratory Analysis Team
  • Disclaimer