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Healthcare

Commercial Insight: Cardiovascular market overview

Raft of patent expires threaten blockbusters

Publication Date October 2007
Publisher Datamonitor
Product Type Report
Pages 262
ISBN Number not applicable
Product Code DAT01224

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Summary

Datamonitor expects the cardiovascular market to remain stable with sales only showing negligible growth between 2006 and 2016, below the 3% growth predicted for the SU sold. Generic products will become increasingly important as the majority of products will have lost IP protection, accounting for 30% of cardiovascular sales and 65% of SU sold in 2016.

Contents

  • Chapter 1 Executive Summary
    • Scope Of The Analysis
    • Datamonitor Insight Into The Cardiovascular Market
    • Related Reports
    • Upcoming Reports
  • Chapter 2 Market Overview And Dynamics
    • Cardiovascular Market
    • Seven Major Markets
    • Cardiovascular Market By Disease Area
    • Us
    • Japan
    • France
    • Germany
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Uk
    • The Top 25 Cardiovascular Active Agents
    • The Top 25 Cardiovascular Brands
    • Geographical Variations
    • Top 25 Active Agents
    • Top 25 Brands
    • Disease Areas
    • Hypertension
    • Dyslipidemia
    • Diabetes
    • Thrombosis
  • Chapter 3 Market Analysis
    • Intellectual Property Risk Assessment
    • Seven Major Markets
    • Us
    • Japan
    • France
    • Germany
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Uk
    • Key Patent Expiries
    • Patent Challenges
    • Company Portfolio Assessment
    • The Top 25 Cardiovascular Companies
    • The Top 10 Cardiovascular Companies Profiles
    • Pfizer
    • Sanofi-Aventis
    • Merck & Co
    • Amgen
    • Novartis
    • Takeda
    • Glaxosmithkline
    • Bristol-Myers Squibb
    • Astrazeneca
    • Novo Nordisk
    • Company Vulnerability
    • Sales - Winners And Losers
    • Sus Sold - Winners And Losers
    • Drug Pricing
    • The Generic Threat
    • Major Brands Facing Generic Erosion During Forecast Period
    • Reformulations And Evergreening
    • Biosimilars
  • Chapter 4 Country Market Assessments
    • Global Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Demographic And Lifestyle Trends Continue To Dominate The Agenda, And Have The Potential To Increase The Hypertensive Patient Population
    • Large Patient Population And Low Treatment Goals In Dyslipidemia
    • Development Of Novel Compounds
    • Growing Awareness Of The Metabolic Syndrome
    • Increasing Co-Operation Between Regulatory Bodies
    • The Emerging Markets Of India And China Cannot Be Ignored
    • Threats
    • Increased Generic Competition
    • Parallel Trade
    • New Eu States May Lead To A Flood Of Cheap Drug Exports
    • Ongoing Cost-Containment Measures
    • Increasingly Conservative Regulatory Environments
    • Restrictive Pricing And Reimbursement Policies
    • Reduced Periods Of Market Exclusivity
    • Mandatory Registration Of All Clinical Trial Results
    • Us: Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Direct-To-Consumer (Dtc) Advertising Is Legal In The Us And Has Been Shown To Influence Patient Prescription Choice And Increase Diagnosis Rates
    • Leveraging The Jnc7 Guidelines To Maximize Pharmacotherapy
    • Leveraging The Ncep Atp Iii Guidelines
    • Lower Targets Will Intensify The Treatment Of Diabetes
    • Price Of Drugs
    • Threats
    • The Changing Healthcare Environment In The Us Will Drive Future Generic Use
    • Generics
    • Medicare Part D Is Expected To Lead To Greater Generic Use
    • Patient Power
    • Pharmaceutical Re-Importation Issues Continue To Dog Big Pharma
    • Further Genericization Encouraged By New Legislation And Public Programs
    • Formularies Promote Quality, But Restrict Choice
    • Pricing And Reimbursement Issues
    • $10 Billion Cut Planned In Medicaid Between 2005 And 2010
    • Curbing Of Dtc Advertising Will Lead To Greater Emphasis On Risk Of Products
    • Wal-Mart $4 A Day Generic Program Introduces Further Cost Competition
    • The Obesity Epidemic
    • Japan: Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Ageing Population
    • Separation Of Manufacturing And Marketing Entities Benefits Both Japanese And Foreign Companies
    • Fewer Outsourcing Restrictions Enhances Manufacturing Efficiency
    • An Underdeveloped Generics Market Slows Brand Erosion
    • Possible Introduction Of Direct-To-Consumer Advertising
    • Multiple Patent Extensions And Labeling Regulations
    • Opening Up The Japanese Market
    • Drug Approval Lag-Time Being Targeted By The Japanese Ministry Of Health, Labor And Welfare
    • Reduced Product Approval Time
    • Harmonization Of Approval Process
    • Threats
    • Despite Being Underdeveloped, Generics Are Expected To Evolve Into A Significant Player In The Japanese Healthcare Market In The Future
    • Generic Drug Use Is Expected To Increase
    • Flat-Sum Reimbursement
    • Complex Regulatory Process
    • Biannual Price Cuts Still Threaten Market Growth
    • New Healthcare Reforms Under Debate
    • 5eu: Opportunities And Threats
    • 5eu Opportunities
    • Revisions To Eu Pharmaceutical Laws
    • Extra Year Of Marketing Protection
    • 5eu Threats
    • Single European Pricing
    • Facilitated Entry Of Generics
    • Generic Substitution
    • Finalization Of Biosimilar Legislation
    • Parallel Trade
    • Formulary Changes
    • France: Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Innovation Encouraged In The Pharmaceutical Industry
    • Demographic Changes Provide Opportunity For Market Expansion Of Chronic Illnesses
    • Consumers In France Readily Recognize The Internet As A Source Of High-Quality Medical Information
    • Generic Consumption In France Is Particularly Low
    • Threats
    • Attractiveness Of French Market Hit By Higher Taxes, Lower Prices And A Shorter Reimbursement List
    • Continuation Of Cost-Control Measures
    • Formulary Access
    • Take-Off Of Generic Sector
    • Limitations On Prescriptions Dispensed From Hospitals To Patients In The Community
    • Pharmacists Are Being Mandated To Drive Generic Dispensing
    • Germany: Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Pricing Freedom Supports Innovation
    • Epharmacy And Mail-Order Drugs Legalized
    • Threats
    • Cost-Containment Measures In Germany Have Led To A Healthy Generics Market
    • German Doctors Set To Receive Bonuses For Prescribing Generics
    • Italy: Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Single Agency Holds Regulatory Authority
    • Negligible Impact Of Generics Is Set To Continue
    • Innovative Drug Development Rewarded With Premium Price And 100% Reimbursement
    • Threats
    • Single Agency Holds Regulatory Authority
    • Ongoing Cost-Containment Measures
    • Stringent Reference Pricing System
    • Restructured Reimbursement Categories
    • Further Pharmaceutical Price Cuts Planned
    • Intellectual Property To Conform With Rest Of Eu
    • Spain: Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Underdeveloped Generics Market Both An Opportunity And A Threat
    • Electronic Prescribing Will Improve Access To Treatments And Promote The Rational Use Of Drugs
    • Threats
    • Increased Scrutiny Of New Drugs
    • R&D Activity Expected To Decline
    • Reference Pricing Systems (Rps) Likely To Have An Impact On Branded Revenues
    • Compulsory Patient Co-Payments
    • Government Awareness Campaign Promotes Generic Use
    • New Medicines Bill Pushes More Price Cuts And Increases Pharmaceutical Tax
    • Uk: Opportunities And Threats
    • Opportunities
    • Attractiveness Of Market
    • Supplementary And Expanded Prescribing Powers
    • New Fast-Track Drug Assessment Process Speeds Up Time Between Licensing And Nice Recommendations
    • Nice Guidance Advises Against The Use Of Betablockers
    • Gms Contract Improvements
    • Threats
    • The National Institute Of Clinical Excellence (Nice)
    • Pricing Controls Dominate Budgetary Cost Containment Strategies
    • The Nhs Is Unreceptive To New Treatments Compared To The Rest Of Europe
    • Falling Foul Of The Abpi, The Uk's Pharma Watchdog
    • Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme (Pprs) Implements Periodic Price Cuts
    • Cost Containment Measures Encourage Continued High Use Of Generics
    • Public Space Smoking Ban
    • Summary Of Environmental Issues Affecting The Cardiovascular Market Size
  • Chapter 5 Forecast Analysis
    • New Product Launches
    • Tekturna/Rasilez (Aliskiren) Marketed By Novartis
    • Exforge (Amlodipine + Valsartan) Marketed By Novartis
    • Byetta Lar
    • Januvia
    • Zetia (Ezetimibe) In Japan
    • Sales Forecast 2006-2016
    • Case Studies
    • Avandia - Fda Negligence Or Political Grandstanding?
    • Pfizer's Sales 'Cliff'
    • Where To Next?
    • Exit The Franchise
    • Cost Control
    • R&D Productivity
    • Licensing And M&A
    • Blockbuster To Nichebuster
    • The Rise Of Japan
    • Emerging Markets
    • Data Definitions, Limitations And Assumptions
    • Standard Units
    • Japanese Market Data
    • Derivation Of Sales Forecasts And Pricing Trends
    • Forecasts
    • Forecast Methodology
  • Appendix A - Bibliography
    • Journals
    • Press Releases
    • Web Articles
    • Databases
    • Datamonitor Reports
  • Appendix B - Market Forecast Data
    • Us Forecasts
    • Japan Forecasts
    • France Forecasts
    • Germany Forecasts
    • Italy Forecasts
    • Spain Forecasts
    • Uk Forecasts
    • 5eu Forecasts
    • Seven Major Market Forecasts
  • Appendix C
    • Report Methodology
    • Disclaimer
  • List Of Tables
    • Table 1: Top 25 Cardiovascular Active Agents In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-2016
    • Table 2: Top 25 Cardiovascular Brands In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-2016
    • Table 3: Key Patent Expiries During The Forecast Period, 2006-2016
    • Table 4: Significant Paragraph Iv Challenges To Top 25 Brands In Us, September 2007
    • Table 5: Top 25 Cardiovascular Companies In The Seven Major Markets By Sales, 2003-06
    • Table 6: Top 25 Cardiovascular Companies In The Seven Major Markets By Sus Sold, 2003-06
    • Table 7: Prevalence Of Obesity In Six Major Markets By Age (000s), 2005
    • Table 8: Five Generics Companies Are Among The Top 10 Companies In Terms Of Prescriptions Filled Under Medicare Part D, 2006
    • Table 9: The Actual Generic Fill Rate Varies Between Therapeutic Classes, 2006
    • Table 10: Wal-Mart Is Selling Many Generic Antihypertensives For Less Than The Mean Price Per Standard Unit In The Us In 2006
    • Table 11: An Example Of The Savings To Be Realized By Using Generic Drugs In The Japanese Market, 2006
    • Table 12: The 10 Clinical Areas Of The Quality Outcome Framework, As Outlined In The Gms Contract, 2005
    • Table 13: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The Us ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 14: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The Japan ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 15: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The France ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 16: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The Germany ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 17: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The Italy ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 18: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The Spain ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 19: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The Uk ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 20: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The 5 Eu ($ Million), 2006-16
    • Table 21: Sales Forecast For The Major Brands And Active Agents In The Seven Major Markets ($ Million), 2006-16
  • List Of Figures
    • Figure 1: Cardiovascular Sales And Standard Units Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 2: Geographical Distribution Of Cardiovascular Sales In The Seven Major Markets By Value, 2003 And 2006
    • Figure 3: Geographical Distribution Of Cardiovascular Sales In The Seven Major Markets By Volume, 2003 And 2006
    • Figure 4: Cardiovascular Sales In The Seven Major Markets By Value ($ Billion), 2003-06
    • Figure 5: Cardiovascular Sales In The Seven Major Markets By Volume (Sus), 2003-06
    • Figure 6: Cardiovascular Sales In The Seven Major Markets By Disease Area, 2006
    • Figure 7: Cardiovascular Sales In The Seven Major Markets By Disease Area, 2016
    • Figure 8: Us Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area, 2003-06
    • Figure 9: Japanese Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area, 2003-06
    • Figure 10: French Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area 2003-06
    • Figure 11: German Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area, 2003-06
    • Figure 12: Italian Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area, 2003-06
    • Figure 13: Spanish Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area, 2003-06
    • Figure 14: Uk Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area, 2003-06
    • Figure 15: Top 10 Cardiovascular Active Agents In The Seven Major Markets By Sales, 2003-2016
    • Figure 16: Total Sales Of The Top 10 And Top 25 Active Agents In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-2016
    • Figure 17: Top 10 Cardiovascular Branded/Licensed/Generic Active Agents In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 18: Top 10 Cardiovascular Brands In The Seven Major Markets By Sales, 2003-2016
    • Figure 19: Growth Of Top 10 And Top 25 Brands By Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-16
    • Figure 20: Geographical Variations In Sales And Launch Of The Top 25 Active Agents In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 21: Geographical Variations In Sales And Launch Of The Top 25 Brands In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 22: Leading Mechanisms Of Action In The Hypertension Market By Sus Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 23: National Hypertension Markets Split By Main Mechanism Of Action And Sus Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 24: Leading Mechanisms Of Action In The Hypertension Market By Sales Value In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 25: National Hypertension Markets Split By Main Mechanism Of Action And Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 26: Dyslipidemia Market Split By Main Mechanism Of Action And Sus Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 27: National Dyslipidemia Markets Split By Main Mechanism Of Action And Sus Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 28: Dyslipidemia Market Split By Sales Of Statins And Other Mechanisms In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 29: National Dyslipidemia Market Sales Split By Main Mechanism Of Action And Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 30: Diabetes Market Split By Main Mechanisms Of Action And Sus Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 31: National Diabetes Markets Split By Main Mechanisms Of Action And Sus Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 32: Leading Mechanisms Of Action In The Diabetes Market By Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 33: National Diabetes Markets Split By Main Mechanisms Of Action And Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 34: Leading Mechanisms Of Action In The Thrombosis Market By Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2003--06
    • Figure 35: National Thrombosis Markets Split By Main Mechanisms Of Action And Sus Sold In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 36: Leading Mechanisms Of Action In The Thrombosis Market By Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 37: National Thrombolytic Markets Split By Main Mechanism Of Action And Sales In The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 38: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment - Division Of Risk Field
    • Figure 39: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 Brands In The Seven Major Markets, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 40: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 Us Brands, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 41: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 Japanese Brands, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 42: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 French Brands, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 43: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 German Brands, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 44: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 Italian Brands, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 45: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 Spanish Brands, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 46: Intellectual Property Risk Assessment Of Top 10 Uk Brands, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 47: Vulnerability Of Top 10 Cardiovascular Companies By Sales, 2003-06
    • Figure 48: Vulnerability Of Top 10 Cardiovascular Companies By Sus Sold, 2003-06
    • Figure 49: Ip Assessment Of Top 10 Brands In The Seven Major Markets And Their Importance To The Marketing Companies, Weighted By 2006 Sales
    • Figure 50: Overall Sales Growth Of The 10 Best-Performing Companies Out Of The Top 25 Cardiovascular Players In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 51: Overall Sales Performance Of The 10 Worst-Performing Companies Out Of The Top 25 Cardiovascular Players In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 52: Cardiovascular Sales Growth Of The 10 Best-Performing Companies Out Of The Top 25 Pharmaceutical Companies In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 53: Cardiovascular Sales Growth Of The 10 Worst-Performing Of The Top 25 Pharmaceutical Companies In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 54: Overall Sus Sold Growth Of The 10 Best-Performing Of The Top 25 Cardiovascular Companies In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 55: Overall Sus Sold Growth Of The 10 Worst-Performing Of The Top 25 Cardiovascular Companies In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 56: Cardiovascular Sus Sold Growth Of The 10 Best-Performing Of The Top 25 Pharmaceutical Companies In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 57: Cardiovascular Sus Sold Growth Of The 10 Worst-Performing Of The Top 25 Pharmaceutical Companies In The Seven Major Markets, 2003-06
    • Figure 58: National Price Variations From The Mean For The Seven Major Markets, 2006
    • Figure 59: Branded Drugs As A Proportion Of The Top 25 Cardiovascular Active Agents, 2003-06
    • Figure 60: Us Patent Expiries Of The Top 10 Brands, 2006-2016
    • Figure 61: Proportion Of Population Aged 60-79 Years, 2004 And 2015, And Prevalence Of Hypertension In This Age Group In The Seven Major Markets, 2004
    • Figure 62: Generalized Distribution Chain For Parallel Traded Pharmaceutical Products
    • Figure 63: Jnc6 And Jnc7 Compared: Classification Of Blood Pressure Levels
    • Figure 64: More Than Half Of All Prescriptions Dispensed In The Us Are Generics, 1984-2005
    • Figure 65: Generic Companies Dominate The Us Pharmaceutical Market In Terms Of Prescriptions, 2006
    • Figure 66: Generic Use In The Us Is Promoted Through A Number Of Channels
    • Figure 67: The Generic Fill Rates In The Us For 2003 Varied Considerably By State
    • Figure 68: The Tiered Co-Payment System Will Lead To Greater Use Of Generics
    • Figure 69: Key Pressures Facing Drug Developers, 1990-2004
    • Figure 70: Wal-Mart's $4 Generic Drug Program Web-Page
    • Figure 71: The Japanese Generic Market Is Underdeveloped Because Of A Number Of Factors
    • Figure 72: Summary Of Global Opportunities And Threats Affecting The Cardiovascular Market, 2007
    • Figure 73: Summary Of Regional Opportunities And Threats Affecting The Cardiovascular Market, 2007
    • Figure 74: Impact Of Cardiovascular Pipeline On Total Sales, 2006-2016
    • Figure 75: Sales Growth In The Main Geographical Regions, 2003-2016)
    • Figure 76: Growth In Cardiovascular Sales By Disease Area, 2006-2016
    • Figure 77: The Future Is Generics - Cardiovascular Sales, 2006-2016
    • Figure 78: Avandia And Actos Sales, 2006-16
    • Figure 79: Pfizer's Cardiovascular Sales 'Cliff'