The blockbuster model now delivers just 5% return on investment and only one in six new drug prospects will deliver returns above their cost of capital, as a result competitive pressures and falling R&D productivity will instigate a new pharmaceutical model that replaces the unsustainable blockbuster model; personalized medicine and the "nichebuster". This report, Beyond the Blockbuster Drug: Strategies for nichebuster drugs, targeted therapies and personalized medicine, examines targeted therapies and targeted drug delivery strategies as alternative investment options for pharmaceutical companies, in the face of declining returns and slow growth in the blockbuster market. This report's strategic insight is also supported by in-depth interviews with thought leaders from the pharmaceutical industry, providing you with their insight into how tomorrow's pharmaceutical business model will develop. This report analyzes the niche pharmaceutical sectors with the greatest potential for profit and future growth. Harness the technological advances in personalized medicine and be part of the "nichebuster" revolution set to drive market growth and produce the market leading drugs of tomorrow.
Content
Executive Summary
The Blockbuster: An Unsustainable Model
Industry At A Crossroads
Beyond The Blockbuster: Personalized Medicine
Targeted Medicine: Oncology
New Drug Technologies: Discovery And Delivery
Drug Development: Outsourcing And Partnering
Case Study: Roche
Case Study: Novartis
Creating Tomorrow's Winning Company
Chapter 1 The Blockbuster: An Unsustainable Model
Summary
Introduction
The Rise And Fall Of The Blockbuster Phenomenon
The Blockbuster Phenomenon
When Blockbusters Come Off Patent
Implications For The Future Of The Industry
Chapter 2 The Industry At A Crossroads
Summary
The Failure Of R&d
The R&d Performance Gap
The Failure Of The 'Mega-Merger'
Conclusion
Chapter 3 Beyond The Blockbuster: Personalized Medicine
Summary
Where Next?
Personalized Medicine
Gene-Based Therapies Reach The Market By 2010
The Race For New Therapies
Conclusion
Chapter 4 Targeted Medicine: Oncology
Summary
Introduction
A Promising Therapeutic Field
Gleevec
Therapeutic Focus On Cancer
Drug Discovery Deals
Molecularly Targeted Therapies
Herceptin
Promising Treatments For Breast Cancer
Advances In Treatment For Colorectal Cancer
Prostate Cancer
Conclusion
Chapter 5 Targeted Drug Delivery
Summary
New Drug Technologies
Customized Medicine
A Future Of Unseen Opportunity
Advances In Science
Targeted Drug Delivery
Oral Delivery Of Macromolecules
Enhanced Bioavailability / Efflux Inhibitors
Scf Technologies
Inhibiting P-Gp Action
Injectable, Biodegradable Depot Drug Delivery
Parenteral Drug Delivery
Pegylation To Deliver Protein And Cancer Drugs
Conclusion
Chapter 6 Drug Development: Outsourcing And Partnering
Summary
Introduction
Why Outsource?
The Changing Cro Model
Biotechs Are Reshaping Drug Development
Moving From Vendor To Strategic Partner
Realizing Strategic Value
The Ideal Cro Model For The New Outsourcing Paradigm
Models For Outsourcing
Do-It-Yourself
Architect
Integrated Design And Build
Risk-Sharing
Conclusion
Chapter 7 Case Study: Roche
Summary
Banking On 'Nichebusters'
A Radically Transformed Roche Portfolio
Diagnostics: An Essential Precursor For Targeted Medicines
R&d Partnerships For Faster Growth
Conclusion
Chapter 8 Case Study: Novartis
Summary
Targeted Medicine
Breadth Vs Depth?
Novartis Portfolio
Ptk787 (Zx 222584)
Icl670
Gimatecan
Femara
Conclusion
Beyond Targeted Medicine
Chapter 9 Creating Tomorrow's Winning Company
Summary
Prisoners Of Roi
Adding A Dimension To The Matrix
Pharmaceutical Companies As Service Providers
Boom Times Knocking At The Door... But Not Without Change
Alliances Fuel Innovation
Growing A Product To Its Maximum Sales
Medicines For 'My' Body
A Broader View Of The Competition
Far-Reaching Psychological And Structural Transformation
Conclusion
Index
List Of Figures
Figure 1.1: From Therapy To Health Maintenance Busters
Figure 2.2: Emergence Of An Elite Group Of R&d Spenders
Figure 2.3: Ten Year Evolution Of A Drug's Development Cost
Figure 2.4: Declining R&d Success*
Figure 2.5: Drug Candidates Of Major R&d-Driven Pharma Companies
Figure 2.6: Performance Gap In R&d
Figure 2.7: Breakdown Of Projects By Clinical Phase And Source Of Drug
Figure 2.8: No Economies Of Scale In Pharmaceutical R&d
Figure 2.9: Shareholder Returns Of Merged And Non-Merged Companies
Figure 2.10: The Need For Alliances And Partnering
Figure 3.11: Genomic Research Based Products Reach The Market Before 2010
Figure 3.12: Genetically Manufactured Substances In The Pipeline
Figure 4.13: Therapeutic Focus Of Clinical Pipeline Activity
Figure 4.14: Global Oncology Players, 2002
Figure 4.15: Deals By Therapeutic Focus (Sept '02 T0 Mar '04)
Figure 4.16: Therapeutic Focus By Company (Sept '02 To Mar '04)
Figure 4.17: Development Of The Global Oncology Market 2001-2008*
Figure 4.18: Breast Cancer Market Opportunities
Figure 6.19: Today's R&d Environment
Figure 6.20: The Future R&d Environment
Figure 7.21: Leading Products In The Roche Portfolio, 2003
Figure 7.22: The Roche Business Model: Innovation And Diagnostics
Figure 8.23: Novartis, Sales By Type Of Business Activity ($M), 2003
Figure 8.24: External Sources Contribute To Novartis Product Growth
Figure 9.25: Drug Discovery Holds Immense Possibilities
Figure 9.26: Reshaping The 'Traditional' Healthcare Model
Figure 9.27: The Integrated Virtual Megapharma-Biotech Company
List Of Tables
Table 3.1: Drug Candidates In Early Stage Clinical Development, 2002-2003
Table 4.2: Cancer Pathologies (Selected) In The Us
Table 5.3: Novel Drug Technologies
Table 7.4: Roche: Early Stage Development Alliances
Table 8.5: Estimated Product Launch Timetable For Novartis Drug Pipeline