Summary
The diabetes market will grow significantly over the next 5 years to US$31.4 billion - who are the companies and what are the market trends and products that will drive growth?
There are a number of drivers in the diabetes market that are fuelling growth:
Product Innovation
New classes of drugs such as GLP-l agonists and DPP-lV inhibitors have already been launched and the pipeline is well stocked. Combination therapies will play their part in the future as will novel drug delivery technology.
Emerging Markets = Rapid Growth
Some of the fastest growing markets for diabetes are in emerging economies - India, China and Indonesia are in the top 5 for disease prevalence. The impact for both branded and generic drugs is considerable.
Unmet Clinical Need Will Keep Developed Markets Strong
While the number of patients diagnosed has gone up it is estimated millions are still to be identified. In the UK alone, it is estimated that up to a million Type II sufferers are undiagnosed.
Strong Annual Growth Expected For The Next Five Years
With many new products yet to realise their full potential, and the high incidence of Type II diabetes expected in emerging markets, prospects for the sector look strong. Estimated at US$22 billion in 2007, it is forecast to grow to US$31.4 billion by 2011, with generics performing strongly as time moves on.
This Report Answers Key Questions
- What revenue is Pfizer's novel Exubera forecast to achieve by 2011 in the hotly-contested insulin market?
- What are the strengths and weaknesses of Merck & Co's Januvia and Novartis' Galvus in the new DDP-IV inhibitor sector?
- Which markets are showing the highest growth in terms of disease prevalence?
- What impact might combination therapies have in the future?
- How well will Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck KgaA be able to protect future Glucophage (metformin) revenues from generic competition?
Current Treatment Options
- Insulin
- Metformin
- Sulphonylureas
- Thiazolidinediones
- Glinides
- Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors
- Amylin agonists
- GLP-l agonists
- DPP-lV inhibitors
Outlook For Current And Expected Therapies To 2011
- Insulin and insulin analogues
- Humulin (Eli Lilly)
- Humalog (Eli Lilly)
- Novolin, Velosulin etc (Novo Nordisk)
- Lantus (sanofi-aventis)
- Levemir (Novo Nordisk)
- NovoRapid/NovoLog (Novo Nordisk)
- Apidra (sanofi-aventis)
- Exubera (Pfizer)
- AERx iDMS (Novo Nordisk/Aradigm)
- Metformin and sulphonylureas
- Glucophage (BMS/Merck)
- Amaryl (sanofi-aventis)
- Thiazolidinediones
- Avandia (GSK)
- Actos (Takeda)
- GLP-l agonists
- Byetta (Eli Lilly)
- Liraglutide (Novo Nordisk)
- AVE0010 (sanofi-aventis)
- DPP-IV inhibitors
- Januvia (Merck & Co)
- Galvus (Novartis)
- saxagliptin (BMS/AstraZeneca)
- Cannabinoid Type I receptor blockers
- Acomplia (sanofi-aventis)
Novel Competitor Ratio Analysis Puts Products Into A Wider Market Context
For a number of new and future drugs, Espicom has provided a competitor ratio analysis, based on our assessment of the following five criteria:
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action;
- Proof of concept/clinical data;
- Management expertise;
- Competition within the marketplace;
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class.
Each of these criteria attracts a maximum of ten points, resulting in a maximum score of 50 overall and allowing you to compare and contrast the prospects for each product.
Providing
- Unique 5 year sales forecasts by product
- Critical assessment and estimates, where appropriate, for 19 new and current compounds
- A review of upcoming products and research strategies
- Prevalence and background data
Industry and investor interest in the diabetes sector has been rekindled
Public awareness about the causes of Type II diabetes, an ageing population and improving diagnosis rates are fuelling market growth. Around the globe, an estimated 246 million people are living with diabetes today. By 2025, it is anticipated this number will increase to around 380 million. Each year, diabetes-related causes account for 3.8 million deaths and claim the lives of as many people as HIV/AIDS.
In 2007, the prevention and treatment of diabetes and its complications will cost at least US$232 billion according to current estimates. By 2025, this is likely to increase to more than US$302.5 billion. Unmet clinical need in developed markets and a rapidly-expanding market in emerging economies will drive market growth.
Innovation Coming To The Market
Equally significant has been the introduction of new classes of drugs. The GLP-l agonists and DPP-lV inhibitors introduce a new approach while delivery technology continues to play a role with the introduction of Pfizer's Exubera - the first inhaled insulin product.
Understand This Key Market Sector
The diabetes market is taking an increasingly important role in industry's and investors' plans which is why Espicom has published this critical analysis Diabetes Drug Discoveries: What the future holds. The report puts the spotlight on current and future drugs that will be used in the treatment of Type I and Type II diabetes as well as related conditions, and provides industry and investors with a complete and comprehensive overview of the market in the medium term.
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