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Diabetes

Commercial Insight: Antidiabetics

Patent expiries and cost containment initiatives balanced by pipeline products

Publication Date   August 2006
Publisher   Datamonitor
Product Type   Report
Pages   216
ISBN Number   not applicable
Product Code   DAT346
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Price £8,695.00

approximately: $15,015 | €11,040

Summary


Introduction

The diabetes epidemic has contributed to growth in the antidiabetics market over the past few years. Since the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase, the market will further expand. While early therapy is dominated by generically available agents, and the later stages by insulin, the number of unmet needs in the diabetes treatment warrants that novel agents will have a place in the market.

Highlights

Demographic trends will lead to increasing patient population. The antidiabetics market is set to continue increasing, driven by the dramatic increase in the prevalence of diabetes in the major markets. Additionally, the rising age of the population across all developed regions is creating an increased burden on health service providers and payers.The highest selling drug classes in the antidiabetics market are heavily genericized and thus will not generate the revenues needed for growing the market. Additionally, TZDs, one of the most lucrative classes, will face patent expiries in the coming decade. These events are expected to be counterbalanced by the introduction of novel agents.The diabetes market is characterized by high unmet need and treatment issues. However, these issues along with radical changes on the understanding of diabetes, have created an environment rich in opportunity. We expect that the growth of the diabetes market will be driven by the exchange of older, cheaper drugs for new more expensive agents.

Scope

  • Country specific event-driven sales forecasts for the period 2006-15 in the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, and a Global overview
  • Patient potential and prescribing trends overview of the antidiabetics market based on historical sales data and future key events
  • Profiles of the country and market specific issues which will impact future sales in the market including generic erosion and class switching
  • Case studies presenting the role that novel agents are likely to play and the balance between issues and opportunities in the diabetes market

Reasons to Purchase

  • Quantify the future size and scope of the diabetes market and potential for new products
  • Analyze options to expand commercial potential through pursuit of new indications
  • Formulate successful launch strategies in a highly competitive market

Content


  • Chapter 1 Executive Summary
    • Objective of the analysis
    • Insight into the antidiabetics market
  • Chapter 2 Market Definition And Overview
    • Market definition for this report
    • Current market situation
    • National markets
    • The insulin market
    • Lantus
    • Humalog
    • NovoRapid/NovoLog
    • NovoLin
    • Humulin
    • Levemir
    • Apidra
    • Outlook
    • The oral antidiabetics (OADs) market
    • Thiazolidinediones
    • Actos
    • Avandia
    • Sulfonylureas
    • Biguanides
    • Prandial glucose regulators (PGRs)
    • Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs)
    • Outlook
    • Incretin mimetics
    • Exenatide
    • Outlook
  • Chapter 3 Country Market Assessments
    • Current and future opportunities and threats in the antidiabetics market
    • Global opportunities and threats
    • Opportunities
    • Threats
    • US: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • US opportunities
    • US threats
    • Japan: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • Japan opportunities
    • Japan threats
    • EU5: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • EU5: opportunities and threats
    • EU5 Opportunities
    • EU5 Threats
    • France: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • France: opportunities and threats
    • France opportunities
    • France threats
    • Germany: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • Germany: opportunities and threats
    • Germany opportunities
    • Germany threats
    • Italy: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • Italy: opportunities and threats
    • Italy opportunities
    • Italy threats
    • Spain: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • Spain: opportunities and threats
    • Spain opportunities
    • Spain threats
    • UK: current market assessment
    • Overview
    • UK: opportunities and threats
    • UK opportunities
    • UK threats
    • Summary of environmental issues affecting the antidiabetic market size
  • Chapter 4 Forecast Analysis
    • Assumptions and events
    • Ongoing trends
    • Increasing market size
    • Trial results
    • CHICAGO and PERISCOPE
    • DREAM
    • ACCORD
    • ADOPT
    • ORIGIN
    • NAVIGATOR
    • New product launches
    • Byetta LAR
    • Liraglutide (NN-2211)
    • Januvia (sitagliptin, MK-0431)
    • Galvus (vildagliptin, LAF-237)
    • Metaglidasen (MBX-102)
    • Exubera
    • AIR inhalable insulin
    • AERx-iDMS inhalable insulin
    • Technosphere inhalable insulin
    • Oral-lyn (Generex)
    • Patent expiries
    • Limitations of data
    • Forecasts
  • Chapter 5 Commercial Impact And Lifecycle Management: Case Studies
    • Introduction
    • Case study 1 - Will changes in diabetes therapy outweigh the issues currently surrounding it?
    • Issues with the current treatment of diabetes
    • Current treatment is suboptimal
    • Inappropriate definitions/monitoring
    • Failing to address/prevent cardiovascular complications
    • Unclear how best to treat Type 2 diabetes
    • Compliance/polypharmacy/secondary drug failure
    • Weight gain
    • Changes in diabetes therapy
    • Understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetes
    • Awareness of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome
    • Insulin sensitizers versus insulin secretagogues
    • Increased treatment with combination therapy
    • Holistic approach
    • Overlap between cardiology and endocrinology
    • Proposed paradigm shift towards prevention
    • Conclusions
    • Diabetes could drive the primary care market
    • New intervention points could create big new markets
    • New understanding leads to new drug markets
    • Biotechnology is potentially a big winner
    • Case study 2 - A rich and diverse diabetes pipeline is expected to drive growth
    • GLP-1 Agonists
    • Mechanism of action
    • Advantages
    • Disadvantages
    • Market potential
    • DPP-4 inhibitors
    • Mechanism of action
    • Advantages
    • Disadvantages
    • Market potential
    • Inhaled insulin
    • Advantages
    • Disadvantages
    • Market potential
    • Conclusion
  • Appendix A - Major Brand Key Facts
    • Insulin market data
    • Humulin
    • Humalog
    • NovoLin
    • NovoRapid/NovoLog
    • Lantus
    • TZDs market data
    • Actos
    • Avandia
    • Sulfonylureas market data
    • Amaryl
    • Glucotrol XL
    • Biguanide market data
    • Glucophage and Glucophage XR
  • Appendix B
    • Bibliography
    • Epidemiology
    • Clinical trial data
    • Report methodology
    • Standard units
    • Japanese market data
  • Appendix C - Market Forecast Data
    • US forecasts
    • Japan forecasts
    • France forecasts
    • Germany forecasts
    • Italy forecasts
    • Spain forecasts
    • UK forecasts
    • M5EU forecasts
    • Global forecasts
    • About Datamonitor
    • About Datamonitor Healthcare
    • About the Cardiovascular Disease analysis team
    • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Global sales in the antidiabetic market by drug class, 2005
    • Table 2: Global sales of the leading branded insulin families, 2004-05
    • Table 3: Global sales of the leading branded TZDs, 2004-05
    • Table 4: Global sales of the leading branded sulfonylureas, 2004-05
    • Table 5: Global sales of the leading branded biguanide, 2004-05
    • Table 6: Global sales of the leading branded PGRs, 2004-05
    • Table 7: Global sales of the leading branded AGIs, 2004-05
    • Table 8: Prevalence of obesity in the seven major markets by age (000s), 2005
    • Table 9: US sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 10: Japan sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 11: EU5 sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 12: French sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 13: German sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 14: Italian sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 15: Spanish sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 16: UK sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 17: The ten clinical areas of the Quality Outcome Framework, as outlined in the GMS contract, 2005
    • Table 18: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting antidiabetics market
    • Table 19: Humulin: key facts
    • Table 20: Humalog: key facts
    • Table 21: NovoLin: key facts
    • Table 22: NovoLog: key facts
    • Table 23: Lantus: key facts
    • Table 24: Actos: key facts
    • Table 25: Avandia: key facts
    • Table 26: Amaryl: key facts
    • Table 27: Glucotrol XL: key facts
    • Table 28: Glucophage and Glucophage XR: key facts
    • Table 29: US antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 30: Japanese antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 31: French antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 32: German antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 33: Italian antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 34: Spanish antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 35: UK antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 36: M5EU antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 37: Global antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Sales and growth for antidiabetic drug classes in the seven major markets, 2004-05
    • Figure 2: Share of antidiabetics market represented by each of the seven major markets in 2005
    • Figure 3: Pioglitazone's effects on triglyceride and HDL cholesterol levels
    • Figure 4: Proportion of population 20-39 years of age, 2003 and 2015 and prevalence of diabetes in this age group, 2003
    • Figure 5: Proportion of population 40-59 years of age, 2003 and 2015 and prevalence of diabetes in this age group, 2003
    • Figure 6: Proportion of population 60-79 years of age, 2003 and 2015 and prevalence of diabetes in this age group, 2003
    • Figure 7: Annual US sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 8: Annual Japan sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 9: Annual EU5 sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 10: Annual French sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 11: Annual German sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 12: A fall in reference prices is likely to lead to greater use of generics
    • Figure 13: Annual Italian sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 14: Annual Spanish sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 15: Although generic sales and volume use have increased over the last ten years, the generics market only accounts for a small proportion of the Spanish pharmaceutical market
    • Figure 16: Annual UK sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 17: Summary of global and EU specific opportunities and threats affecting the diabetes market, 2006
    • Figure 18: Summary of US and Japan-specific opportunities and threats affecting the diabetes market, 2006
    • Figure 19: Summary of country-specific opportunities and threats affecting the diabetes market, 2006