Cancer

Commercial Insight Top 20 Cancer Therapeutics

Publication Date	July 2006
Publisher	Datamonitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	197
ISBN Number	not applicable
Product Code	DAT00520

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Introduction

The Top 20 cancer therapeutics generated sales of $20.1 billion in 2005 across the seven markets, set to reach $27.4 billion by 2015. Cytotoxics currently constitute the majority, due to their long history in oncology and their key role in current treatment. By 2015, the majority of the Top 20 will consist of targeted therapies, whose place in cancer therapy will become increasingly established.

Highlights

The Top 20 cancer therapeutics were worth nearly $20.1 billion in sales in 2005 across the seven major markets. Given that the entire oncology market including the supportive care classes across the seven major markets, was worth $34.6 billion in 2005, the Top 20 cancer therapeutics account for a significant proportion of sales, approximately 58%.In 2005, the cytotoxics represented the majority of the Top 20, due to their long history in oncology and applicability for use across a range of tumor types. By 2015, the targeted therapies will constitute the majority as their inclusion into standard treatment continues and as line extension and horizontal expansion strategies are implemented.Only the targeted therapies class is forecast to undergo positive sales growth between 2005 and 2015, as increased inclusion into standard regimens occurs. The cytotoxics and antihormonal therapies are set to experience negative sales growth to 2015, as patent expiries on key products occur and increasing levels of genericization erode sales.

Scope

Overview of the current Top 20 cancer therapeutics market, including profiles of key products and events impacting each during 200515h3>
Assessment of current and future opportunities and threats in the cancer market across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
Individual country, EU5 and seven-market sales forecasts from 2005 to 2015 for the leading cancer therapeutics
Detailed discussion of assumptions and events used in forecast analysis, plus three commercial impact and lifecycle management case studies

Reasons to Purchase

Understand market specific drivers and predict the future potential of key cancer therapeutics
Quantify the impact of key patent expiries and product launches, and identify opportunities and risks across the seven major markets
Adopt knowledge to drive strategic planning for mature products and optimize the market penetration of new entrants

Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Scope of the analysis
- Insight into the cancer market
Chapter 2 Market Definition And Overview
- Market definition for this report
- Cytotoxics
- L1A - Alkylating agents
- L1B - Antimetabolites
- L1C - Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products
- L1D - Antineoplastic antibiotics
- L1X2 - Platinum compounds
- Antihormonal therapies
- L2A3 - Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogs
- L2B1 - Anti-estrogens
- L2B2 - Anti-androgens
- L2B3 - Aromatase inhibitors
- Targeted therapies
- L1X3 - Antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies
- L1X9 - All other antineoplastics
- The Top 20 cancer therapeutics
- Current market situation
Chapter 3 Country Market Assessments
- Current and future opportunities and threats in the cancer market
- Global opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- US: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Japan: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- EU5: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- France: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Germany: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Italy: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Spain: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- UK: opportunities and threats
- Opportunities
- Threats
- Summary of environmental issues affecting the cancer market size
Chapter 4 Forecast Analysis
- Country-specific assumptions and events
- Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US
- Biennial price cuts in Japan
- Generic erosion assumptions
- Product-specific assumptions and events
- Cytotoxics
- Schering-Plough's Temodar/Temodal (temozolomide)
- Eli Lilly's Alimta (pemetrexed)
- Eli Lilly's Gemzar (gemcitabine)
- Taiho Pharmaceuticals' TS-1 (tegafur, gimeracil & oteracil)
- Taiho Pharmaceuticals' UFT (tegafur & uracil)
- Pharmion Corp's Vidaza (5-azacitidine)
- Roche's Xeloda (capecitabine)
- Pfizer/Yakult/Daiichi's Camptosar/Campto (irinotecan)
- Pierre Fabre/GlaxoSmithKline's Navelbine (vinorelbine)
- Bristol-Myers Squibb's Taxol (paclitaxel)
- Sanofi-Aventis's Taxotere (docetaxel)
- Johnson & Johnson/Schering-Plough's Doxil/Caelyx (pegylated liposomal doxorubicin)
- Pfizer's Ellence/Farmorubicin (epirubicin)
- Sanofi-Aventis's Eloxatin (oxaliplatin)
- Bristol-Myers Squibb's Paraplatin (carboplatin)
- Antihormonal therapies
- Debiopharm's Decapeptyl (triptorelin)
- Takeda/TAP/Abbott/Wyeth's Lupron (leuprorelin)
- Sanofi-Aventis's Suprefact (buserelin)
- AstraZeneca's Zoladex (goserelin)
- AstraZeneca's Nolvadex (tamoxifen)
- AstraZeneca's Casodex (bicalutamide)
- AstraZeneca's Arimidex (anastrozole)
- Pfizer's Aromasin (exemestane)
- Novartis's Femara (letrozole)
- Targeted therapies
- Genentech/Roche's Avastin (bevacizumab)
- ImClone/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA's Erbitux (cetuximab)
- Genentech/Roche's Herceptin (trastuzumab)
- Genentech/Roche's Rituxan/MabThera (rituximab)
- Novartis's Gleevec/Glivec (imatinib)
- AstraZeneca's Iressa (gefitinib)
- OSI Pharmaceuticals/Genentech/Roche's Tarceva (erlotinib)
- Ortho Biotech/Millennium Pharmaceuticals' Velcade (bortezomib)
- Pipeline and newly marketed products
- Amgen's ABX-EGF (panitumumab)
- Onyx Pharmaceuticals/Bayer's Nexavar (sorafenib)
- Bristol-Myers Squibb's Sprycel (dasatinib)
- Pfizer's Sutent (sunitinib)
- GlaxoSmithKline's Tykerb (lapatinib)
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
- Standard units
- Japanese market data
- Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
- Forecasts
- Forecast methodology
Chapter 5 Commercial Impact And Lifecycle Management: Case Studies
- Introduction
- Case study
- Changes to the Top 20 cancer therapeutics between 2005 and 2015
- The Top 20 cancer therapeutics in 2005 - cytotoxics have the largest share
- The Top 20 cancer therapeutics in 2015 - targeted therapies are key
- Product sales growth between 2005 and 2015
- Individual country Top 20 cancer therapeutics
- Case study
- Genentech/Roche's Avastin: increasing market penetration and line extensions expected to break all boundaries
- The first commercialized angiogenesis inhibitor
- The Genentech/Roche partnership: a key to success
- Expanding range of indications
- Despite formulation issues, the monoclonal antibodies generally confer greater clinical benefit than the small molecules
- Competitor threats to be heeded
- Biosimilars: should Genentech and Roche take note?
- A prime example of becoming the leader in a new drug class
- Case study
- The impact of targeted therapies in redefining cancer
- Greater understanding & new technologies have enabled the development of molecular targeted therapies
- Redefining classification of tumor types
- Genentech/Roche's Herceptin: using patient population subtypes to expedite regulatory approval
- Commercial potential for diagnostics and biomarkers
Appendix A - Market Data And Major Brand Key Facts
- Cytotoxics market data
- Antihormonal therapies market data
- Targeted therapies market data
Appendix B - Market Forecast Data
- US forecasts
- Japan forecasts
- France forecasts
- Germany forecasts
- Italy forecasts
- Spain forecasts
- UK forecasts
- EU5 forecasts
- Seven major market forecasts
Appendix C
- Bibliography
- Report methodology
List of Tables
- Table 1: Definition of the cancer market, 2006
- Table 2: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in the US, Japan, France and Germany, 2005
- Table 3: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in Italy, Spain, the UK and collective seven major markets, 2005
- Table 4: Key pipeline/newly marketed drugs included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics
- Table 5: Seven major market sales of Top 20 cancer therapeutics by drug class, 2005
- Table 6: Key targeted therapies included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics
- Table 7: Key cytotoxics included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics
- Table 8: Key antihormonal therapies included in the Top 20 cancer therapeutics
- Table 9: Market share of Taxotere, 2005
- Table 10: Market share of Eloxatin
- Table 11: Approved indications for Rituxan in the US and EU, 2006
- Table 12: Clinical pipeline for ABX-EGF, 2006
- Table 13: Clinical pipeline for Nexavar, 2006
- Table 14: Clinical pipeline for Sprycel, 2006
- Table 15: Summary of Phase II Sprycel clinical trial results
- Table 16: Clinical pipeline for Sutent, 2006
- Table 17: Clinical pipeline for Tykerb, 2006
- Table 18: Seven market forecast sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics, 2005
- Table 19: Seven market forecast sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics, 2015
- Table 20: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in the US, 2005-15
- Table 21: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in Japan, 2005-15
- Table 22: Top 20 cancer therapeutics in the five EU markets, 2005-15
- Table 23: Key events in Avastin's lifecycle
- Table 24: Seven market forecast sales of Avastin, 2005-15
- Table 25: Global forecast sales of Avastin based on company-reported data, 2005-15
- Table 26: Alimta: key facts
- Table 27: Camptosar: key facts
- Table 28: Doxil: key facts
- Table 29: Ellence: key facts
- Table 30: Eloxatin: key facts
- Table 31: Gemzar: key facts
- Table 32: Navelbine: key facts
- Table 33: Paraplatin: key facts
- Table 34: Taxol: key facts
- Table 35: Taxotere: key facts
- Table 36: Temodar: key facts
- Table 37: TS-1: key facts
- Table 38: UFT: key facts
- Table 39: Vidaza: key facts
- Table 40: Xeloda: key facts
- Table 41: Arimidex: key facts
- Table 42: Aromasin: key facts
- Table 43: Casodex: key facts
- Table 44: Decapeptyl: key facts
- Table 45: Femara: key facts
- Table 46: Lupron: key facts
- Table 47: Nolvadex: key facts
- Table 48: Suprefact: key facts
- Table 49: Zoladex: key facts
- Table 50: Avastin: key facts
- Table 51: Erbitux: key facts
- Table 52: Gleevec: key facts
- Table 53: Herceptin: key facts
- Table 54: Iressa: key facts
- Table 55: Nexavar: key facts
- Table 56: Rituxan: key facts
- Table 57: Sutent: key facts
- Table 58: Tarceva: key facts
- Table 59: Velcade: key facts
- Table 60: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the US, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 61: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the US, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 62: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Japan, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 63: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Japan, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 64: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in France, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 65: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in France, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 66: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Germany, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 67: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Germany, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 68: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Italy, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 69: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Italy, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 70: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Spain, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 71: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in Spain, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 72: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the UK, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 73: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the UK, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 74: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the EU5, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 75: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the EU5, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
- Table 76: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the seven major markets, 2005-15 (1 of 2)
- Table 77: Top 20 cancer therapeutics forecasts in the seven major markets, 2005-15 (2 of 2)
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Seven market population aged 60 and over, 2000-50
- Figure 2: Increasing incidence of cancer with increasing age
- Figure 3: Seven major pharmaceutical market oncology sales, 2004-14
- Figure 4: Summary of global opportunities and threats affecting the cancer market, 2006
- Figure 5: Summary of regional opportunities and threats affecting the cancer market, 2006
- Figure 6: Seven market sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics by drug class, 2005
- Figure 7: Seven market sales of the Top 20 cancer therapeutics by drug class, 2015
- Figure 8: Seven market cytotoxics sales growth, 2005-15
- Figure 9: Seven market antihormonal therapies sales growth, 2005-15
- Figure 10: Seven market targeted therapies sales growth, 2005-15
- Figure 11: Forecast sales of Avastin, 2005-15