United States Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2006

Summary

US Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, key company personnel, market investors, and corporate and financial services analysts with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare industry in US.

The Report has just been researched at source, and features latest-available data and forecasts to 2010 covering drugs and healthcare expenditure, the prescription, OTC and generics markets, and foreign trade; company rankings and competitive landscapes including multinational and national drugs companies; and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments.

Market Overview

Currently valued at approximately US$250bn, the US pharmaceutical market is the largest in the world and growth, whilst lower than previously seen over the last decade, is expected to be in the region of 4% to 5% over the next 5 years. The majority of the world's major companies are based there and most new drugs are introduced in the US first. According to BMI's newly published"United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report", which forecasts the performance of the market to 2010, the country's influence on the global pharmaceutical industry is set to continue.

The US spends more on healthcare as percentage of GDP than any other country due to the population's desire for the best treatment and latest medical advances. Currently, the country spends just over 16% of GDP on healthcare and this figure is expected to grow to 17.5% by 2010, primarily as result of an aging population and a greater proportion residents gaining access to healthcare through the Medicare Part D program. However, numerous studies assert that the quality of healthcare there, as calculated value in value for money terms, lags behind many nations, particularly those in Western Europe. BMI analyses this paradox, offering insights into why this so.

With the exception of New Zealand, the US is the only country to permit direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription medicines. As such, patients are acutely aware of the risk/benefit profile of pharmaceuticals, often asking their physician for medicines - branded and generic - by name. This empowerment manifests in many forms, such as seniors crossing the border to Canada to import cheaper drugs, much to the annoyance of drug companies.

On the regulatory side, the US FDA is extremely powerful and influential, with many other countries' drug agencies following its lead when it comes to drug approvals. However, the organisation's image was tarnished following the Vioxx scandal in 2004 and it is BMI's view that the issues of safety will become increasingly important in the forecast period. This will result in longer review times and thus lower revenues for pharmaceutical companies, tempering growth of the market.

As with all developed nations, burgeoning healthcare costs must be controlled and cheaper generic drugs are seen as an obvious opportunity to achieve this aim. In 2005, generics accounted for 9.7% of the market in value terms and this type of product is expected to cannabalise the branded market over the forecast period, reaching over 15% penetration by 2010. A significant number of leading blockbuster drugs are due to come off-patent over the next few years, which should also give impetus to sector growth.

Key Benefits of Report

• Rely On Our Independent 5-Year Forecasts As A Benchmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning.
• Target Business Opportunities & Risks through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments
• Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTSon your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multinational and national companies.

Scope of Report

Executive Summary & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect The’s forecast analysis, and taken together with The’s Economic and Business Environment SWOTS, give a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary
Outline of market characteristics, growth factors, leading therapeutic segments and a competitivness of the market.

Regulatory Regime
Guide to and analysis of country intellectual property developments and pricing & reimbursement issues, which constitute the regulatory make-up of the market.

Industry Developments
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D and patent legislation.

The 5-Year Industry Forecast
5-Year Forecasts to end-2010 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

• Drug market expenditure (US$bn); drug expenditure per capita (US$); as % of gdp
• Prescription drug market (US$bn)/as % of total market; sales by alimentary tract/metabolism; antibiotics, cardiovascular, central nervous system, oncology, musculoskeletal and respiratory system
• OTC market (US$bn)/as % of total market (sales by analgesic, cough and cold, digestives, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals)
• Generics market (US$bn)/ as % of total market
• Health expenditure (US$bn, % of gdp and per capita); public sector health expenditure as % of total; number of hospitals; beds, hospital admissions, doctors, births and deaths per 000 population

Forecasts based on bespoke The economic modelling, using historical data sets of macroeconomic and industry variables to derive rigorous statistical relationships, anchored in advanced linear regression techniques.

The 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecasts
The forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including:
Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt

Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Intelligence on the market position of major MNC power houses and indigenous companies. The profiles key research-based companies. Company SWOTS are provided for all key strategic players, complete with a company activity overview, its leading products and analysis of business opportunities.

Companies Covered:Abbott Laboratories, Bayer AG, Boehringer Ingelheim Group, Biosinttica, Eli Lilly, Elmor, Farmaindustria, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Grupo Farma, Lab Ach, Lab Andrmaco, Lab Bag, Lab Maver, Lafrancol, Merck & Co Inc, Novartis AG, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer Inc, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis

Contents

Executive Summary

United States: Market Summary

Industry Developments

Industry Forecast Scenario

Competitive Landscape

BMI Forecast Modelling

Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Country Snapshot: USd Demographic Data