Summary
Mexico's pharmaceutical market is expected to continue its rapid growth over the forecast period to reach a value of US$28.3bn by 2012, up from an estimated US$14.9bn in 2007. A worsening chronic disease burden and increased health insurance uptake should drive volume growth in the pharmaceutical market, while a relatively free pricing environment when compared with other Latin American markets should further aid value growth.
The pharmaceutical market is expected to grow 12.9% in local currency in 2008, driven as in the past few years, by moves to more expensive bioequivalent generics and rising personal wealth. However, the oneoff gains from stronger bioequivalence regulation driving up the value of the generics market are expected to wear off over the forecast period, resulting in market growth to fall back into line with GDP by the end of the forecast period. The government remains committed to ensuring similares, or copies without proven bioequivalence, are eradicated from the market by early 2010.
Growth in the over-the-counter (OTC) drug market is less certain. BMI expects increased health insurance coverage and a clearer line between the prescription and OTC markets to increase prescription drug uptake. Meanwhile, the fact that OTCs are largely funded out-of-pocket leaves demand more sensitive to the wider economic climate. Mexico's proximity to the US and the strong trade links between the two countries leave Mexico exposed to any downturn in the US economy. Consequently, OTC market growth in 2008, currently forecast to be 12.6% in local currency, could come in substantially lower if a severe downturn in the US economy materialises.
It is not only multinationals taking note of Mexico's pharmaceutical market potential. An agreement between Brazil's Ach and Mexico's Silanes will see the latter market and distribute a number of the former's products in Mexico, subject to regulatory approval. The move will be reciprocated by Ach
acting as marketing and distribution agent for Silanes products in Brazil.
Furthermore, state-controlled vaccine producer Laboratorios de Biolgicos y Reactivos de Mxico (Birmex) reopened its Instituto Nacional de Virologa (INV) production facility in Q208. The INV has the capacity to meet all domestic demand for polio vaccination. The upgrade should also boost its chances of gaining World Health Organization (WHO) recognition, which would dramatically enhance its export potential as the only facility capable of producing the oral polio vaccine (OPV) in Latin America.
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