Belgium Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010

Summary

Growth in the Belgian drug market is expected to decline in 2009, with pharmaceutical expenditure calculated to increase by only 2.41% by the end of this year, compared with the 5.16% and 5.23% rates experienced during 2007 and 2008. Drug expenditure reached EUR4.48bn (US$6.59bn) in 2008 and is expected to increase to EUR4.59bn in 2009. However, as a result of the weakening euro, pharmaceutical expenditure in US dollar terms is calculated to decline to US$6.47bn. BMI attributes the decline in Belgium's pharmaceutical expenditure growth in 2009 to the economic downturn and the resultant drop in the country's GDP growth, as well as the government's numerous cost-cutting initiatives. Our Country Risk Team forecasts GDP growth declining from 1.0% in 2008, to -3.7% in 2009, with nominal GDP expected to fall from EUR343.9bn (US$505.6bn) in 2008 to EUR337.6bn (US$472.6bn) in 2009.

By 2014, BMI calculates the drug market will be worth EUR5.41bn (US$6.77bn). Our extended 10-year forecast model projects that drug expenditure will reach EUR6.09bn (US$7.61bn) by 2019, representing a 2009-2019 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.86% in local currency terms and 1.64% in US dollar terms. As a proportion of GDP, drug expenditure is expected to decline marginally over the 10 years, from 1.37% in 2009 to 1.26% by 2019. The anticipated drop-off is due to stringent costcontainment measures by the government, including encouraging the prescription of generic medicines and cutting drug prices.

In September 2009, the Belgian government's efforts to contain healthcare costs were highlighted by Pharma.be (the industry association of research-based companies). The association claimed that patients are increasingly being denied innovative medicines as a result of strict prescribing rules. Dr Jean Creplet, the medical director of Pharma.be, said the target patient population for the 46 medicines that were added to the country's reimbursed drugs list in 2008 was approximately one million; however, only 300,000 patients met prescribing conditions, leaving 70% of the target population without access to innovative drugs. This trend continued into 2009, with only 27% of the 8,200 target patient population gaining access to the 13 innovative drugs accepted onto the reimbursed drugs list in H109. BMI believes that as with the government's other cost-cutting initiatives, the increasingly strict prescribing rules will not be welcomed by drugmakers. We believe denying patients access to innovative drugs counteracts the country's position as a location in which to launch new medicines.

Meanwhile, in company news, in October 2009, Belgian biotech company Galapagos strengthened its alliance with Merck & Co by signing its third deal of this year with the multinational drugmaker. As a result, Galapagos is now eligible to receive research, regulatory and sales milestone payments that may exceed US$595mn. The risk-sharing alliance will strengthen Galapagos's financial position and provide the investigational company with increased access to Merck's drug development know-how and market experience, especially with regards to cholesterol-lowering products.

Contents

• Executive Summary
• SWOT Analysis
• Belgium Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
• Belgium Political SWOT
• Belgium Economic SWOT
• Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
• Limits Of Potential Returns
• Belgium - Market Summary
• Regulatory Regime
• Recent Regulatory Developments
• Intellectual Property Environment
• Pricing Regime
• Reimbursement Regime
• Recent Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
• Generics Sector
• OTC Regulatory Environment
• Industry Trends And Developments
• Epidemiology
• Recent Public Health Developments
• Healthcare Sector
• Recent Healthcare Sector Developments
• Medical Tourism
• Pharmaceutical Wholesale and Retail
• Research And Development Sector
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Overall Market Forecast
• Key Growth Factors - Industry
• Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
• Prescription Drug Market Forecast
• Patented Product Market Forecast
• Generic Drug Market Forecast
• OTC Medicine Market Forecast
• Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
• Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
• Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
• Competitive Landscape
• Pharmaceutical Industry
• Recent Company Developments
• Company Monitor
• Leading Multinational Manufacturers
• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
• Pfizer
• Novartis
• Sanofi-Aventis
• Merck & Co
• Leading Indigenous Manufacturers
• UCB Pharma
• Solvay
• Janssen Pharmaceutica
• Omega Pharma
• Country Snapshot: Belgium Demographic Data
• Section 1: Population
• Section 2: Education And Healthcare
• Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
• BMI Methodology
• How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
• Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
• Ratings Overview
• Weighting
• Sources
• Forecast Tables
• List of Tables
  • Table: Western Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q110
  • Table: Disease Burden In Western Europe
  • Table: Belgium - Economic Activity, 2005-2014
  • Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  • Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
  • Table: Education, 2002-2005
  • Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
  • Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
  • Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  • Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
  • Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
  • Table: Weighting Of Components