Summary
Recently released market data continues to paint a very positive picture of Ukrainian pharmaceutical market growth, and the economy has remained surprisingly resilient despite a host of external shocks such as rising energy costs. Russian research group RMBC reported growth of 31% in H106, following growth of 28% in wholesale prices in Q106. BMI remains sceptical that this level of growth is sustainable, but has updated its growth forecast for FY2006 to 22% to reach US$1.94bn. The five-year forecast for 2005 to 2010 now expects annual growth of 9.4% compared to the previous forecast of 7.2%, with total market value now expected to reach US$2.49bn in 2010.
From a policy perspective, the re-appointment of Minister of Health Yuri Polyachenko to the new cabinet led by new Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich can be regarded with cautious optimism. Polyachenko signalled no radical departures from previous policy, stating that the government must remain focused on the transition to a health insurance system while 'accelerating the tempo in each area' of reform. He laid emphasis on providing adequate financing for targeted disease programmes in areas such as cancer and diabetes. He also said a wide-ranging structural reform of the ministry would be undertaken to increase its efficiency.
While saying little new, Polyachenko's reappointment and the formation of a new government under the controversial figure of Yanukovich should provide some way forward after many months of political deadlock. Meanwhile the government continues to hint at new policy in the pharmaceuticals sector. Early in 2006, the Ukrainian cabinet issued a decree that called for a 'Plan of Development' for the domestic pharmaceuticals industry. The impact of such decrees in the past has been negligible. Rather, strong market players are leading consolidation with Darnitsa , Arterium and Borshchagovsky topping the domestic sector. Large scale foreign investment is still lacking, however, notwithstanding relatively small investments by companies such as Bioton (Poland) and Gedeon Richter (Hungary).
Key Benefits of Report
- Rely On Our Independent 5-Year Forecasts As A Benchmark
to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks
through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments
- Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTS
on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multinational and national companies.
Scope of Report
Executive Summary & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s Economic and Business Environment SWOTS, give a complete overview of market climate.
Market Summary
Outline of market characteristics, growth factors, leading therapeutic segments and a competitivness of the market.
Regulatory Regime
Guide to and analysis of country intellectual property developments and pricing & reimbursement issues, which constitute the regulatory make-up of the market.
Industry Developments
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D and patent legislation.
5-Year Industry Forecast
5-Year Forecasts to end-2010 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Drug market expenditure (US$bn); drug expenditure per capita (US$); as % of gdp
- Prescription drug market (US$bn)/as % of total market; sales by alimentary tract/metabolism; antibiotics, cardiovascular, central nervous system, oncology, musculoskeletal and respiratory system
- OTC market (US$bn)/as % of total market (sales by analgesic, cough and cold, digestives, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals)
- Generics market (US$bn)/ as % of total market
- Health expenditure (US$bn, % of gdp and per capita); public sector health expenditure as % of total; number of hospitals; beds, hospital admissions, doctors, births and deaths per 000 population
Forecasts based on bespoke BMI economic modelling, using historical data sets of macroeconomic and industry variables to derive rigorous statistical relationships, anchored in advanced linear regression techniques.
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including:
Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Intelligence on the market position of major MNC power houses and indigenous companies. BMI profiles key research-based companies. Company SWOTS are provided for all key strategic players, complete with a company activity overview, its leading products and analysis of business opportunities.
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