Summary
Slovenia boasts a small but advanced pharmaceutical market, which holds modest longer-term potential. Main drivers of future growth include the ageing population and rising demand for novel treatments, as well as local investment by foreign companies. However, the market is poised for period of uncertainty as the country adopts the euro in January 2007 - primarily as result of overstocking in late 2006 in anticipation of higher prices - although the euro will boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and imports. Additionally, problems with intellectual property (IP) and pricing and reimbursement regimes will continue to cause concern for foreign research-based manufacturers.
The pharmaceutical market was valued at US$517mn in 2005, which equates to annual per capita expenditure of over US$200. The report expects the value of the market to reach US$718mn by 2010. Prescription medicines will remain dominant, at around 90% of the total. Over-the-counter (OTC) segment will benefit from cost-containment pressures, as well as improvements in patient purchasing power and possible deregulation of the retail pharmacy market. Generic drugs will continue to receive government support, as the authorities protect the local industry, although therapeutic advances and rising healthcare expectations will promote the branded sector growth.
In regional terms, The adjusted Business Environment Rankings for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) place Slovenia in the tenth place. The country lags behind a number of its neighbours, not just the more advanced markets such as the Czech Republic, but also its faster-growing immediate neighbours, such as Bulgaria. Factors include the strong local manufacturing sector, market saturation and certain deficiencies within the country's regulatory infrastructure, and in particular reimbursement policy.
Slovenia's pharmaceutical demand is almost met by domestic production and imports on an almost equal basis in value terms. Local generic leaders Krka and Lek dominate the landscape, with multinationals mostly involved through imported medicines rather than local production. CEE markets in general and, more specifically, Eastern European, South-Eastern European and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) markets are the key destinations for Slovenian export production. Given the relatively small size of the Slovenian market and its comparatively mature level of development, the majority of Slovenia's pharmaceutical output will mostly continue to be destined for export.
Key Benefits of Report
- Rely On Our Independent 5-Year Forecasts As A Benchmark
to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks
through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments
- Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTS
on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multinational and national companies.
Scope of Report
Executive Summary & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s Economic and Business Environment SWOTS, give a complete overview of market climate.
Market Summary
Outline of market characteristics, growth factors, leading therapeutic segments and a competitivness of the market.
Regulatory Regime
Guide to and analysis of country intellectual property developments and pricing & reimbursement issues, which constitute the regulatory make-up of the market.
Industry Developments
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D and patent legislation.
5-Year Industry Forecast
5-Year Forecasts to end-2010 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Drug market expenditure (US$bn); drug expenditure per capita (US$); as % of gdp
- Prescription drug market (US$bn)/as % of total market; sales by alimentary tract/metabolism; antibiotics, cardiovascular, central nervous system, oncology, musculoskeletal and respiratory system
- OTC market (US$bn)/as % of total market (sales by analgesic, cough and cold, digestives, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals)
- Generics market (US$bn)/ as % of total market
- Health expenditure (US$bn, % of gdp and per capita); public sector health expenditure as % of total; number of hospitals; beds, hospital admissions, doctors, births and deaths per 000 population
Forecasts based on bespoke BMI economic modelling, using historical data sets of macroeconomic and industry variables to derive rigorous statistical relationships, anchored in advanced linear regression techniques.
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including:
Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Intelligence on the market position of major MNC power houses and indigenous companies. BMI profiles key research-based companies. Company SWOTS are provided for all key strategic players, complete with a company activity overview, its leading products and analysis of business opportunities.
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