Summary
The Estonian pharmaceuticals market was worth an estimated US$183.8mn at consumer prices in 2005. The latest growth forecast, the total pharmaceuticals market will grow at a 6.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2010, reaching US$253mn. This growth rate is slightly below the regional average of 7.2% CAGR forecast for Central & Eastern European (CEE). It is also well down on the 22.7% year-on-year growth rate observed as recently as 2004. However, Estonia's environment is ultimately lower risk than its peers, and the government has recently taken steps to further strengthen the financial health of the Eesti Haigekassa insurance fund. The more worrying dynamic for manufacturers will be maturation of a small market, although demand for innovative treatments, within the framework of available reimbursement spending, will drive the ethical end of the market.
In H106, the Estonian government announced plans to substantially increase both the funding and scope of the reimbursement scheme. In June, the government also took measures to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the system. Thus, patients obtaining medicines within the 50% reimbursement category must now buy their medicines on a two-month supply basis. This ensures patients make co-payments for medicines instead of gaining a greater discount on larger supplies. The government will continue to watch developments in the hospital sector closely, as tight funding has regularly stoked labour unrest. Renewed conflict over wages could be a major political problem for the government as well as a threat to current fiscal stability.
This updated Q3 Business Environment Rankings for Central & Eastern Europe now place Estonia second overall out of the 14 major markets in the region, tied with fast-growing neighbour Lativa. Estonia's high ranking comes in spite of its tiny market size (which brings down its overall score), as it is boosted by the country's transparent legislative environment and steadily reducing economic and political risk factors. BMI's updated rankings also reflect changes in the relative attractiveness of other CEE markets, for example with the Czech Republic suffering from political conflict in the health sector.
Increased funding and reimbursement cover should help the pharmaceuticals market maintain steady growth. At the same time, the wholesale and retail sectors have reached a level of consolidation unmatched in any other CEE country. On the one hand, this brings stability and clear lines of supply to a small and previously fragmented market. On the other hand, it increases the bargaining power of the dominant players, including Finnish wholesale giant and Phoenix subsidiary Tamro. For patients, this consolidation and maturation of the market ensures continuing price competition, particularly for OTC and parapharmaceutical goods, although the country has put in place limits on further pharmacy expansion in a crowded sector. The consolidation of Sandoz's representative office, combining Hexal and Lek, will see additional consolidation in the generics sector and greater pricing pressures for all players.
Key Benefits of Report
- Rely On Our Independent 5-Year Forecasts As A Benchmark to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments
- Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTSon your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multinational and national companies.
Scope of Report
Executive Summary & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect The’s forecast analysis, and taken together with The’s Economic and Business Environment SWOTS, give a complete overview of market climate.
Market Summary
Outline of market characteristics, growth factors, leading therapeutic segments and a competitivness of the market.
Regulatory Regime
Guide to and analysis of country intellectual property developments and pricing & reimbursement issues, which constitute the regulatory make-up of the market.
Industry Developments
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D and patent legislation.
The 5-Year Industry Forecast
5-Year Forecasts to end-2010 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Drug market expenditure (US$bn); drug expenditure per capita (US$); as % of gdp
- Prescription drug market (US$bn)/as % of total market; sales by alimentary tract/metabolism; antibiotics, cardiovascular, central nervous system, oncology, musculoskeletal and respiratory system
- OTC market (US$bn)/as % of total market (sales by analgesic, cough and cold, digestives, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals)
- Generics market (US$bn)/ as % of total market
- Health expenditure (US$bn, % of gdp and per capita); public sector health expenditure as % of total; number of hospitals; beds, hospital admissions, doctors, births and deaths per 000 population
Forecasts based on bespoke The economic modelling, using historical data sets of macroeconomic and industry variables to derive rigorous statistical relationships, anchored in advanced linear regression techniques.
The 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecasts
The forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including:
Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Intelligence on the market position of major MNC power houses and indigenous companies. The profiles key research-based companies. Company SWOTS are provided for all key strategic players, complete with a company activity overview, its leading products and analysis of business opportunities. Companies Covered:Actavis, Antibiotice, AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Belupo, Boehringer Ingelheim Group, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Egis, Eli Lilly, Galenika, Gedeon Richter, Grindeks, GSK, ICN, Krka, Lek, Merck & Co Inc, Nizhpharm, Novartis AG, Novo Nordisk, Olainfarm, Pfizer Inc, Pliva, Polfa Kutno, Polpharma, Roche, Sanitas, Sanofi-Aventis, Sopharma, Stirolpharm, Tallinn Pharmaceutical, Company, Terapia, Valentis, Zentiva, Zorka
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