Summary
The collapse of the Zimbabwean dollar, brought about by isolationist and internationally unacceptable government policy, has led to the dramatic fall of the country's drug market. The value of the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical market is significantly lower now than it was a decade ago, with little hope of significant recovery in the face of the continuation of the same policy regime. Consequently, the drug market will continue to perform below its potential, despite a sharp inflation-driven increase in drug prices. By the end of 2011, the country's pharmaceutical market is forecast to reach only US$4.9mn, stagnating in comparison to the estimated figure for 2006. Rampant counterfeiting, difficult political and economic environments and the biased regulatory regime will continue to render imports minimal. On the other hand, charity and other international efforts, such as donations of essential medicines for the treatment of prevalent infectious disease in the country, will continue to distort the real figures. Increasingly, traditional medicines and alternative treatments will become the only options for the bulk of the population on low incomes. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is slowly coming under control, although about 18% of the total population is infected. As such, Zimbabwe remains ranked last in BMI's adjusted Business Environment Rankings for the Middle East & Africa region. On one hand, foreign activity remains discouraged by discriminatory policies and a difficult political environment, while on the other, rampant inflation and shortages of foreign currency make domestic production difficult. Endemic corruption both in the health service and among government officials has also helped create a burgeoning black market, and the government has been criticised for doing little to change the situation.
Consequently, local companies will have to look abroad for revenue, although the need to import raw materials renders even this proposition difficult. At the same time, foreign players - and multinationals in particular - will remain generally uninterested in the market unless the regulatory and business environment conditions are significantly improved. Even Indian generics imports might be in jeopardy if Novartis wins its challenge over the Indian patent law, which would prevent the manufacture and export of copy products.
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