Summary
Nigeria's pharmaceutical market is small considering the size of the population and growth is set to be sluggish in the coming years. However, the country has huge potential. Aside from being Africa's most populous nation, there is an entrepreneurial ethic in the country, which could help the pharmaceutical sector develop. Nevertheless, the national health system still suffers from low levels of funding and total per capita healthcare expenditure is well below US$10.
Arguably the key problem facing the sector is the scourge of counterfeit drugs, which account for approximately half of all drug sales in the country. Unsafe medicines kill thousands of people each year and also undermine the local manufacturing sector and deter multinationals. However, the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) is fighting to stem the illicit trade, conducting 13,897 raids between 2001 and 2002. Although this has had an impact, the trade continues unabated, due to high demand for affordable treatments.
The adjusted Business Environment Rankings for the Middle East and Africa region reveal that Nigeria is in 13thplace, ahead only of Zimbabwe. This is primarily due to forecasts of low growth, coupled with the lack of any working intellectual property (IP) regime. The country's uncertain economic and political outlook also acts as a barrier to investment.
Local drugmaker Emzor has begun producing artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) to combat malaria. ACTs are the recommended treatment for the disease and should help prevent the development of malaria resistance in the country. Neros Pharmaceuticals Lagos has also recently launched two new ACTs. Both companies are benefiting from a World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline that urges member states to switch malaria treatment programmes to ones based on combination therapies.
Indonesian drugmaker Kalbe Farma has announced that it is setting up a joint venture in the country with an unnamed Nigerian partner. The move comes amid government restrictions on drug imports, which are forcing firms to manufacture drugs locally.
Key Benefits of Report
- Rely On Our Independent 5-Year Forecasts As A Benchmark
to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks
through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments
- Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTS
on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multinational and national companies.
Scope of Report
Executive Summary & Industry SWOT
An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s Economic and Business Environment SWOTS, give a complete overview of market climate.
Market Summary
Outline of market characteristics, growth factors, leading therapeutic segments and a competitivness of the market.
Regulatory Regime
Guide to and analysis of country intellectual property developments and pricing & reimbursement issues, which constitute the regulatory make-up of the market.
Industry Developments
Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D and patent legislation.
5-Year Industry Forecast
5-Year Forecasts to end-2010 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
- Drug market expenditure (US$bn); drug expenditure per capita (US$); as % of gdp
- Prescription drug market (US$bn)/as % of total market; sales by alimentary tract/metabolism; antibiotics, cardiovascular, central nervous system, oncology, musculoskeletal and respiratory system
- OTC market (US$bn)/as % of total market (sales by analgesic, cough and cold, digestives, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals)
- Generics market (US$bn)/ as % of total market
- Health expenditure (US$bn, % of gdp and per capita); public sector health expenditure as % of total; number of hospitals; beds, hospital admissions, doctors, births and deaths per 000 population
Forecasts based on bespoke BMI economic modelling, using historical data sets of macroeconomic and industry variables to derive rigorous statistical relationships, anchored in advanced linear regression techniques.
5-Year Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including:
Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Intelligence on the market position of major MNC power houses and indigenous companies. BMI profiles key research-based companies. Company SWOTS are provided for all key strategic players, complete with a company activity overview, its leading products and analysis of business opportunities.
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