Morocco Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2008

Summary

Based on estimates by pharmaceutical industry association AMIP, Morocco's drug market expenditure was around MAD9.5bn (US$1.2bn) in 2007. Between 2008 and 2012 BMI forecasts expenditure to grow by an average of 8.9% a year, reaching a value of MAD14.5bn (US$1.7bn) by the end of 2012. Expected mild depreciation of the dinar against the US dollar over the forecast period should make US dollar returns marginally less attractive drug market growth in US dollar terms should average 8.1% a year between 2008 and 2012.

Moroccans spent an average of just US$37 per person on pharmaceuticals in 2007.Compulsory health insurance, which was launched in 2006 has allowed many Moroccans to meaningfully participate in the drug market for the first time, should go some way to remedying the country's low per capita drug expenditure. However, there is concern over the longterm financial viability of Morocco's social security schemes, leading BMI to believe that, drug market expenditure cannot continue to exceed GDP growth indefinitely. Indeed, we forecast a peak in the share of GDP devoted to pharmaceutical expenditure in 2011.

In BMI's Middle East and Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rankings, Morocco is placed in equal eighth position out of 16 markets surveyed. The pharmaceutical operating environment is rated on a par with Oman, demonstrating that Morocco has a midsized pharmaceutical market with a high growth forecast and moderate country and pharmaceutical industryspecific risk.

Morocco is home to North Africa's largest pharmaceutical manufacturing industry. Both domestic drugmakers and key multinationals operate local manufacturing operations. France's SanofiAventis is the largest player by market share. However, welldeveloped local manufacturers such as Sothema also generate substantial sales. Pharmaceutical exports are surprisingly low given the country's manufacturing strength and strategic location. However, these are expected to grow on the back of strengthening trade ties with developed countries, as exemplified by the signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US in 2004.

Morocco's pharmaceutical regulation is relatively well developed. Drugmakers have reported few problems with the approvals process, which, at around 12 months for a new chemical entity (NCE), is swift by regional standards. The country's pricing system is less attractive drug prices are controlled and a clear distinction is made between locally manufactured drugs and imports when the Director of Medicine and Pharmacy (DPM) sets prices.

Contents

• Executive Summary
• Morocco Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
• Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
• Limits To Potential Returns
• Risks To Realisation Of Returns
• Market Summary
• Regulatory Regime
• Intellectual Property
• Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
• Industry Developments
• Epidemiology
• Healthcare Sector
• Healthcare Reforms
• Health Insurance
• Pharmaceutical Sector
• Industry Forecast Scenario
• Overall Market Forecasts
• Key Growth Factors Industry
• Key Growth Factors Macroeconomic
• Prescription Drug Market Forecast
• Patented Drug Market Forecast
• Generics Market Forecast
• OTC Drug Market Forecast
• Medical Device Market Forecast
• Pharmaceutical Export/Import Forecasts
• Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
• Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
• Competitive Landscape
• Company Profiles
• Sanofi Aventis
• Pfizer
• GlaxoSmithKline
• Indigenous Producers
• Sothema
• Laprophan
• Promopharm
• BMI Forecast Modelling
• How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
• Ratings Overview
• Weighting
• List of Tables
  • Table: Regional Business Environment Ratings
  • Table: Leading Causes Of Death In Morocco, 2002
  • Table: Morocco's Drug Market Expenditure, 20052012
  • Table: Morocco's Health Expenditure, 20052012 (US$bn unless otherwise stated)
  • Table: Morocco Economic Activity
  • Table: Morocco's Prescription Drug Market, 20052012 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
  • Table: Morocco's Patented Drug Market, 20052012
  • Table: Morocco's Generic Drug Market, 20062012
  • Table: Morocco's OTC Market (US$bn unless otherwise stated)
  • Table: Morocco Medical Device Market, 20042012 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
  • Table: Morocco's Pharmaceutical Trade Balance (US$mn)
  • Table: Morocco's Other Health Indicators
  • Table: Major Pharmaceutical Companies Operating In Morocco (2004)
  • Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
  • Table: Weighting Of Components